Despite the Islamic Republic's denial, the 12 day war between Israel and Iran has ended in a defeat for Iran. This loss, on top of the demise of the Assad regime in Syria and the losses suffered by Hezbollah and Hamas, has changed the Middle East's calculus.

Prior to these changes, the region’s conservative Arab regimes, as well as Israel, regarded the Iranian regime as their most dangerous and loathsome enemy.  Now, however, Arab regimes recognise Israeli expansionism as their most serious threat.  

Under these new circumstances, what is the principal threat to Iran and what opportunities does this situation present to the Islamic Republic? 

Several tactical and strategic changes may be available but the regime has proven itself averse to any major change of direction. However, continuation of Iran’s 'no war no peace' policy seems to be a recipe for disaster. Iran's rulers are well aware that their populace is nearing breaking point under the current economic and social conditions and that further oppression cannot provide a solution. 

However at least two issues must be addressed:

• Iran's uranium enrichment ostensibly has been a red line for the US without providing any tangible benefits to Iran. Why does the Islamic Republic continue to present Trump (and Netanyahu) with an easy excuse for aggression?

• In the eyes of the West, Iran’s policy of regional dominance is an absolute red line. One of the main instruments of Iran’s strategy is ‘forward defence’ - an alliance with Hezbollah and others.  This is now in taters. What is the regime going to do about it?

The Middle East, including Iran, needs a long period of peace and stability.