March 15, 2025

Trump's Return

1- With Trump's return to the White House, the world is facing a different America. Trump has come to the fore with the slogan "America First" and has no boundaries to achieve it, he will not tolerate any law that does not comply with his wishes; he does not rule out the seizure of regions of the world by force and threat; it seems that he has returned to the era of colonialism. He issues order after order to seize Greenland, Ukrainian mines or annex Canada to the United States, change the name of the Gulf of Mexico, and reclaim the Panama Canal. Trump has also ordered an economic war with America's competitors, neighbors, and even allies. He wants to bargain and deal with everything and is determined to gain concessions in favor of America at all costs.

Given the economic, political and military role of this country in the world, Trump’s second term as president has effects beyond the United States itself, on a global scale. From this perspective, Trump’s return is a turning point with far-reaching consequences that evoke the developments of the 1970s and early 1980s in the twentieth century, which gained strength with the coming to power of Ronald Reagan in the United States and neoliberalism became the dominant trend of global capitalism. His policies expanded the boundaries of capitalism; with the slogan of smaller government and deregulation,  established the absolute dominance of the free market; practically collapsed national borders and the nation-state and, by removing the remaining obstacles, paved the way for the domination of multinational corporations, cartels and trusts over the world economy and its control. The concentration of wealth and power in the hands of a small group of people and the astronomical increase in the gap between poverty and wealth in most societies were the consequences of that trend.

Now, with the return of Trump, a kind of nationalism, right-wing populism combined with a totalitarian tendency is showing itself. Oligarchs and billionaires have officially captured the government. Before Trump, the extreme and totalitarian right had become a powerful tendency in many European countries and sometimes the ruling one in some countries. Trump’s return and his decrees indicate the dominance of such a tendency at the head of the world’s largest capitalist power. Trump has exposed the imperialist face of America without any veil.

2- Trump and Trumpism are not an unexpected and fleeting event but are rooted in the course of capitalist developments. The Trump administration is a government of multi-billionaires and large cartels, and it was elected by the people who rebelled against the system that rules the world and was dominated by these billionaires and cartels. But this does not mean that other American governments have been completely different governments; some of the main elements of Trump's policies have also existed in other American governments, and of course they have had different methods of advancing their goals.

Trump's return and his open support for right-wing parties in other countries, especially in Western European countries, have exacerbated the crisis of Western liberal democracies and faced new challenges for political and civil forces. Now, in most Western countries, parties with an obvious fascist and far-right tendency have been strengthened. The basis for strengthening these types of tendencies is the existence of crises prevailing in the economic and political systems of these countries. The main vote base of these parties, such as Trump’s Republican Party, is generally the discontented and working masses who do not trust the ruling system and traditional political parties, both left and right.

3- With the slogan of restoring American greatness, the Trump administration openly acknowledges that American greatness is declining. The world is moving towards multipolarity. The formation of new poles has also challenged America’s sole hegemony among its allies. However, Trump’s “America First” with the violence used in its implementation may be able to achieve relative success in short term by imposing some American policies on others, but it has little potential for realization in longer term. The cost of Trump's bullying in a world that is increasingly becoming multipolar and where numerous economic and political powers such as China, India, etc. have emerged and will play a prominent and perhaps powerful role in the future of the world, "America First" could also be the beginning of the collapse of America's so far hegemony. For years, efforts have been made to replace the dollar with other currencies and many tools to create different and alternative hegemonies. The vote on Ukraine at the United Nations, given Trump's new policy towards this war, his verbal conflict with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the White House, and his stance towards Russia, have practically put America's allies before another choice and strengthened the idea of ​​independence from America.

Developments in the Region

4- The Middle East region has changed after the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel and the Israeli war against Hamas in Gaza. Gaza has been destroyed and more than 48,000 Palestinians have been massacred. A ceasefire has now been established, but the fate of Gaza is still unknown. Donald Trump, along with Benjamin Netanyahu, is thinking of continuing the complete destruction of Gaza, completing the work of the right-wing Israeli government, expelling Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan, and creating a recreational and tourist area in the ruins of this part of the Palestinian territory. The two-state solution, which was emphasized by most countries in the world, including the United States, at the beginning of the conflict, has now been overshadowed again due to the position of the then Israeli government and its main supporter, the Trump administration. The Palestinian Authority has been weakened even more than before. The gap between this government and Hamas has practically limited the possibility of influencing issues related to the future of Palestine and its relationship with Israel. Trump’s “Abraham Peace” solution, which began by excluding the Palestinians and their political representatives from the peace process, could be revived under Trump’s pressure. The complete destruction of Gaza, the blatant violations of Palestinian rights in the West Bank, and the re-entry of Israeli tanks into the region after two decades are further signs of the current Israeli government’s circumvention of solutions for a two-state solution.

5- Israel’s attack on Lebanon in the midst of the Gaza war, the killing and massacre of Hezbollah leaders, and ultimately forcing the Lebanese government and Hezbollah to accept the conditions of Israel and its Western allies, further limited Hezbollah’s position and the Islamic Republic’s interference in Lebanon’s internal affairs. On this basis, it became possible to elect a president and form a new government in Lebanon. However, despite the ceasefire, both the Israeli government and Hezbollah continue to challenge each other, and the current ceasefire remains fragile.

6- With the fall of the Assad government by the Tahrir al-Sham group, the balance of power in the region has turned a new page. The recent massacre in Tartus, Jabalah and Latakia on the Syrian coast by the forces of the new government showed that the world is facing another disaster in Syria. Tahrir al-Sham and its leaders, who had been ruling in Idlib since 2017, were able to overthrow the Assad regime in a lightning-fast move by aligning various jihadist groups and with the support of Turkey within a few days. The leader of this group, with a history of association with the Islamic State (ISIS) and Al-Qaeda and the experience of this group’s rule in Idlib, has become the main ruler of Syria. Tahrir al-Sham and its leader Ahmed al-Sharaa now effectively hold the central government in Damascus. The recent massacre showed what dreams they had for Syria by holding a meeting with their allies under the name of a “national” meeting. The main absentees from the group’s “national” meeting were the Kurdish forces and their allies in northern Syria, who control a third of Syria’s territory and are the main force in defeating and dismantling the Islamic State in Syria. Similarly, the Druze and Alawites, two other important ethnic and religious groups in Syria, were not represented at the Tahrir al-Sham government meeting. This also makes it difficult to predict the future of developments in Syria. The recent massacre was a warning to everyone. the agreement with the Kurdish forces and their allies is a step in the right direction towards recognizing the political, religious and ethnic diversity in Syria. But until the provisions of this agreement are implemented in practice, it can hardly be called an achievement towards national reconciliation in Syria. The ominous shadow of war and killing is still visible in this country.

The Islamic Republic’s Deadlock

7- The war in Gaza and the weakening of Hamas, blows suffered by Hezbollah, and the eventual fall of the Assad regime, the Islamic Republic’s most important ally in the region, disrupted the Islamic Republic’s “axis of resistance,” and its “strategic depth” policy practically collapsed, leaving the country with all the costs that had been spent on such a policy. Also, although the Islamic Republic tried to show off its arsenal with two demonstrative missile attacks on Israel, its promise of a third attack in response to Israel remained just as a bluff, and with the change of government in the United States, the regime’s boasting on this issue was practically stopped. Assad’s fate showed that the Islamic Republic itself, which has remained in power only by relying on repression, could suffer a similar fate.

8- After Trump’s return, his “maximum pressure” has put the Islamic Republic in even greater straits. Before Trump’s second term, the Islamic Republic was not in a good position, considering the developments in the region and the widespread economic, social, and political crises at home. Now, with Trump's arrival, it is practically caught in another whirlpool. The whisper of negotiating with Trump, Khamenei's initial green light to it, indicated an attempt to get out of this situation, but negotiations were soon banned again. One of the reasons for the retreat could be the US's conditions, the dimensions of which are still unclear. On the other hand, accepting negotiations with the US, given Khamenei's boasting so far, could be another declaration of bankruptcy after the defeat of the "axis of resistance." Still, in Khamenei's dictionary, "negotiating with the US is not “intelligent, wise, or honorable”, and has no effect on resolving the country's problems." But the first effect of his rejection of negotiations is, first of all, the increase in the price of the dollar in the Tehran market to about 93,000 tomans, which also makes the price of public necessities for the people much more expensive.

9- Ending the economic sanctions and political isolation of the country is not possible without negotiating with the US and reaching an agreement on the disputed issues. Refusing to negotiate directly with the US has effectively isolated our country and exposed it to crippling economic sanctions and military threats and war. Continuing this situation could impose more irreparable economic and political losses on the country. Every day that this situation continues, more opportunities to get out of the current miserable situation for the country and its economy are lost, and the people’s living standards will decline further. Another risk is that European governments will activate the Snapback mechanism in the JCPOA in the next few months and UN sanctions will be reinstated. The way out of this situation, despite the Islamic Republic’s position, is to return to the negotiating table and move towards normalizing relations with other countries.

10- The domestic situation in the country is no better than relations with the world. The economic crisis is becoming more acute and complex with each passing day. The inefficiency of the regime apparatus is making the Islamic Republic's maneuvering power more limited than before. The majority of the country's population lives below the poverty line. Unemployment and high prices are rampant. Not a day goes by when people don't take to the streets to improve their living conditions, protest and strike. It is becoming more difficult for workers and wage earners to make a living with wages that are becoming less valuable every day. The housing issue is eating up a large part of people's income. Homelessness, sleeping on cardboard boxes and in graves are increasing day by day. It is becoming more difficult for many people to meet their daily needs, and it has become impossible for most people to procure certain items, such as meat. A look at the lines of the government's budget for next year shows that the needs of the people have no place in the regime's plans. The priority of this year’s budget of the current government is, first of all, tripling the budget for the military and security forces and allocating a large portion of the country’s resources to religious and ideological institutions. This year, the budget for the regime’s propaganda and parasitic institutions, such as the Supreme Council of Seminaries, the Seminary Service Center, etc., has increased by billions of tomans. However, in this same budget, when it comes to increasing employee salaries, only a 20 percent increase is predicted, while the country’s official inflation is around 40 percent. Along with all these disorders, the “brain drain” process has intensified, and many specialists in various fields prefer to live abroad rather than stay in the country and endure numerous pressures and restrictions and leave the country.

11- Now, we can boldly admit that a very large part of the people is against the continuation of the Islamic Republic’s rule and no longer have any hope of change within this regime. The boycott of the presidential elections was a clear reflection of this reality. On the other hand, the Islamic Republic has actually become a declining system. The Islamic Republic regime has lost its effectiveness as a state. The division of powers among different centers has not only reduced the efficiency of the state but has accelerated its decline and transformed the entire system into a corrupt and rent-seeking network. Public hatred of this system has eliminated the possibility of a way out of this situation. Any reform or retreat within the regime by its agents is also considered a kind of failure and this fear has destroyed the power structure from within.

12- Popular movements, the most recent of which is the “Women, Life, Freedom” movement, have shown that there is a huge potential for change hidden within our society. The struggle for change has a history as long as the Islamic Republic’s life and has gone through various stages in its development. However, this conflict in recent years has questioned the foundation of the Islamic Republic and has created a new balance between the regime and the people. If we look at the process of formation of popular movements, given the course of these movements, the possible future outcomes will certainly be much more comprehensive and powerful. The retreats of the Islamic Republic in one or another case, including the suspension of the “Hijab and Chastity” law or the abolition of filtering, indicate the regime’s fear of provoking public anger and expressing the regime’s inability and incompetence in advancing its policies so far. The search for solutions within the regime and its margins has now gone beyond discussions about changing roles, preparing for the post-Khamenei era and succession, and is also considering, in a way, the removal of the leader himself. If years ago, calls for Khamenei’s resignation were made from outside, now there are no shortage of voices within the regime that criticize Khamenei’s record, demand his resignation, and consider the continuation of the current situation impossible.

13- The big void that exists in the Iranian movement is the absence of an effective opposition. Every time the people's movement in Iran rises, the opposition also becomes more active, platforms, plans and plans are presented, but the will that can take a step towards the future in coordination with the people's movements and open a new perspective for society is not created. We are trying to create a weight of republicans, at the same time, we believe that none of the active factions of the republican and democratic opposition are capable of creating an alternative force alone but creating an alternative consisting of republican and democratic forces is not impossible. There are many grounds, capacities and commonalities for coordination within the opposition in order to form an alternative force, and efforts should be increased for their proximity and coordination. The existence of a united opposition committed to the people and committed to freedom and democracy is one of the main needs of the movement to confront and overthrow the Islamic Republic and establish a democratic, secular political structure that relies on the will of the people.

The people have repeatedly expressed their determination to overthrow the Islamic Republic and create fundamental changes. Now it is the opposition's turn.

Central Council of the Left Party of Iran
March 15, 2025