July 28, 2025
Central Council of the Left Party of Iran
The 12-day war between Israel and Iran has changed the political situation in the country. The regime, society, and the regime's relations with the people are not the same as they were before the war. Despite being severely damaged and weakened by the war, the Islamic Republic continues its destructive policies.
1: Israel's military aggression against Iran, coordinated and supported by the Trump administration, occurred in the midst of negotiations with the US government, in a situation where the regional balance had changed to the detriment of the Islamic Republic and its "axis of resistance." In such circumstances, Israel, which always saw the Islamic Republic as a potential threat to itself, decided to launch a surprise attack on Iran. This attack was designed to destroy the military, nuclear, and defense infrastructure of the Islamic Republic, assassinate military commanders and nuclear experts, and ultimately overthrow the regime. Israel achieved a significant part of its military objectives during the 12-day war, but it failed to overthrow the regime for various reasons, the most important of which was the Iranian people’s lack of positive response to Netanyahu’s call.
After the initial shock, the Islamic Republic tried to respond to the Israeli invasion by using its ballistic missiles. The 12-day war, after direct American intervention and attacks on the Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow sites, ultimately led to a ceasefire that has been maintained by both sides to this day.
2: Although Israel's attack on Iran was coordinated with the United States, the strategic goals of the two were not the same. For the United States, an Iran without a nuclear program and with controllable missile power would be acceptable if it stopped supporting proxy forces. However, Israel also seeks to eliminate the Islamic Republic and establish a dependent government, and even, if possible, to disintegrate Iran. To this end, Israel, along with Reza Pahlavi, tried to bring the people to the streets to revolt against the regime. But despite the widespread opposition to the regime, they said no to this aggressive effort. Meanwhile, Reza Pahlavi also suffered a heavy political defeat by supporting the war and the Netanyahu government.
3: A fragile ceasefire has now been established between Iran and Israel. The fact that both sides have practically accepted it indicates that they do not consider the continuation of the war to be in their interests at this point. This ceasefire is fragile because the main factors driving the war still exist. If the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program does not change, if an agreement is not reached in future negotiations, and if uranium enrichment continues, the pretext for war will remain in place.
4: During the war, Iran’s skies were defenseless against Israeli aircraft attacks due to the destruction of defense equipment at the beginning of the war, but the framework of the regime structure did not fundamentally change despite the killing of dozens of military commanders. The war damaged the people’s civil, trade union, and political protests. It also intensified the repression, increased executions, and the arrest of hundreds of civil and political activists. Although the war and the resulting disasters caused the protest movements to subside from the very first minutes, the economic hyper crisis and social pressures still remain, and it is natural that with the ease of the war atmosphere, demands and civil protests will return to the country's scene. Even now, signs of protests have formed and are spreading due to a series of dissatisfactions, especially the anger of the people due to the long and frequent power and water outage, along with the skyrocketing prices of the people's necessities.
The military aggression of Israel and the United States changed the makeup of the opposition forces inside and outside the country, added to the cracks within the opposition forces, and created certain changes in the positions of some parties. Among the opposition, Reza Pahlavi was not the only one who suffered serious damage by siding with foreign aggressor powers. Cracks also appeared within other opposition forces. Some movements, including a number of national and ethnic parties, remained silent in the face of Israeli aggression and war. Silence towards the aggressor and criminal Israeli government, which itself has a bloody history of suppressing the Palestinian people and occupying Palestinian territories, is not only inexcusable, but will also harm the transition to democracy in Iran and these forces themselves.
During the Twelve-Day War and afterwards, a large part of the political organizations and parties, as well as the forces active in the popular movements of Iran, courageously took a stand against Israeli aggression and the role of the Islamic Republic. Most of the leftist and democratic republican movements in Iran, including our party, the “Hamgami” coalition, and trade union and democratic organizations condemned the military aggression of Israel and the United States, as well as the warmongering of the Islamic Republic, and took a stand against war and warmongers, and came to the scene with the slogan “no to war and no to the Islamic Republic.”
5: The Islamic Republic regime knows very well that it has lost the war and has lost the power it pretended to have. Fear of the regime's collapse has increased the country's highest officials' skepticism about Khamenei's leadership and has weakened the legitimacy of the leader of the Islamic Republic. Ali Khamenei, who a few months before the war declared with force that there would be neither negotiations nor war, was shamelessly dragged to the negotiating table and war broke out. Israel, which was supposed to disappear from the face of the earth, suddenly appeared in the sky of the Iranian capital, killed the government's military and security chiefs in the blink of an eye, targeted the heads of the three branches of government who accidentally survived, and exposed the Khamenei’s regime to collapse.
The regime, which has spent the country's strength and wealth on forming forces of “axis of resistance” so that it could, alongside its expansionist goals, build a security shield against threats and surround Israel, was faced with a reality that was completely contrary to its expectations and propaganda, and Israel was able to extend the scope of its attacks not only to large and small cities in Iran, but also to the centers of power of this regime. Now the Islamic Republic is not the same as it was before the 12-day war. The regime's leaders have understood that continuing the war could lead to the collapse of the ruling system. The defeat in the 12-day war and the risk of its re-ignition have made decision-making very difficult for the regime. The later the Islamic Republic negotiates and suspends the nuclear program, the sooner it will face the risk of another war. On the other hand, the countdown to activating the “snapback” mechanism has begun. If Europe uses the “snapback” mechanism, the UN sanctions will return again without a vote in the UN Security Council and completely paralyze the country's crisis-ridden economy and our country will be considered a rogue country. Russia and China will not do anything for the Islamic Republic in response to this action, as they did during the 12-day war. Whether another war occurs in the future will depend entirely on the decision of the Islamic Republic in future negotiations.
6: After the defeat in the war, the regime has intensified the repression of the people. On the one hand, it has appropriated the people's lack of support for Netanyahu and the Israeli and American aggressor forces and their absence from the streets and is using it as a propaganda maneuver to present opposition to foreign aggression as support for itself. On the other hand, it knows that the people are not reconciled with the Islamic Republic regime and is trying to show its power by suppressing the people and forcing the opposition forces to silence. It has also discovered a new excuse. While the main spies have nested at the top of the regime, they have used spying for Israel as an excuse to intensify the fear in society, and millions of Afghan refugees and Kurdish Koolbars (those who carry loads on their back) have not been immune from this accusation. After the 12-day war, the regime has executed some prisoners on death row, and the security media has begun to propagandize the killing of prisoners and repeat the killings of the 1980s, a warning that must be taken seriously. Political prisoners are still at risk of attack by the regime. The impact of a number of these bombs on Evin Prison put the lives of political prisoners at risk, and in addition to killing and slaughtering people, it gave the regime the necessary cover to disperse the prisoners and destroy the rights they had gained by fighting in prison. The people of Iran played no role in this war. But the ominous results of the war, such as the destruction of the country's infrastructure, hospitals and refineries, other facilities, the collapse of buildings, and the defenseless victims of bombs and bullets, have fallen upon them.
7: Although the 12-day war has stopped, the possibility of its resumption still exists. As long as an agreement is not reached on the Islamic Republic's nuclear program, and the regional policies of the Islamic Republic have not changed, the shadow of war will continue to hang over the country. In such circumstances, the urgent task of pro-democracy forces, defenders of human rights, and opponents of tyranny is to distance themselves from the warmongering of foreign powers while intensifying the struggle against internal repression. Only by relying on the people, opening the political space, and ending the regime's nuclear and military adventures can a path be opened to peace. A policy that the Islamic Republic has been alien to so far.
We now have three urgent tasks:
First, the struggle against oppression and repression and the creation of the necessary conditions for ending the regime and transitioning to democracy are essential. At the center of this struggle, the release of political prisoners must become a national demand and a widespread struggle must be organized for it. Advancing this task at home and abroad is of vital importance. Also, any action taken towards the transition from the Islamic Republic to democracy and the satisfaction of the demands of social movements must be welcomed.
Second, the danger of another war threatens all aspects of people’s lives. The need for a fundamental change in the nuclear program, the suspension of uranium enrichment, and even its complete cessation, which has so far brought only harm to the Iranian people, must become a universal demand. Over the past few decades, the Islamic Republic has endangered the existence of the Iranian people with its nuclear adventure and the conflict over it. On the other hand, the regime’s military actions in the region and its support for proxy forces and the cost it imposes on the country's economy have put Iran's national interests and security at risk. This regime cannot ensure the country's internal and external security.
Third, organizing a dialogue at the community level to get rid of the current dire situation that has now become more possible both inside and outside the country, efforts to strengthen coalitions and alliances among the Republican and Left forces, and coordination and solidarity among forces that accept democracy and adhere to its principles, should be on the agenda. Our country needs the Left and Republican forces to organize around the effort to transition from the Islamic Republic and replace it with a democratic and secular republic. While continuing to strive to create a bloc of leftist forces to defend the interests of workers and toilers, to consolidate existing republican coalitions and expand them with other republican forces, we must also take steps to coordinate and cooperate with other democratic forces around the principles of democracy and strive to create a center of coordination and cooperation between these forces.
We are now faced with proposals to change the situation or rearrange the existing situation with minor changes, plans for unanimity in the country around the referendum of the Constituent Assembly, and its scrutiny by 17 prominent activists within the country, which are positive signs of serious movements in line with the country's urgent need to carry out fundamental changes in it. Our party, welcoming such orientations, once again emphasizes its proposal to advance the dialogue between the secular democratic opposition at the widest level, and to try to form a center for coordinating forces seeking to end the Islamic Republic. Political mobilization based on movements and with the prospect of fundamental changes, in order to achieve this goal, is the urgent need of the day.
Central Council of the Left Party of Iran
July 28, 2025
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