In early Decembre 2024, more than five decades of the Assad dynasty’s dictatorial rule in Syria came to an abrupt end.
Huge questions remain outstanding as to whether peace, prosperity, territorial integrity and democracy will be achieved in Syria. Coherent answers are likely to take a long time to emerge.
‘Heyat Tahrir Alsham’ (HTS) is leading a coalition of armed organisations with deep roots in the jihadist movement. Will there be a smooth transition to a unified military force?
Syria has suffered many years of civil war and sanctions resulting in a shattered economy. Will there be enough investments in the country to be turned into a viable economy? By whom and with what conditions?
Syria’s territorial integrity is being challenged from several sides. Turkey is trying to establish a large buffer zone while the Kurds (in the north east) desire autonomy. Meanwhile, Israel has occupied a previous buffer zone straddling Syria and Israel, overlooking the occupied Golan Heights. How will these challenges pan out?
Of course, the fall of any dictatorship is welcome. But what will be the nature of its replacement? How will the disparate tendencies of the many armed groups react to the new “moderate turn” of the leadership? With enormous tensions over the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood throughout the region, how can Syria avoid becoming the battleground of sectarian tendencies?
The Islamic Republic of Iran has been a huge loser in this rapidly developing scene. They claim their relationship with Assad’s regime was based on shared convictions, attempting to minimise the enormous importance of the loss of this crucial conduit to the Mediterranean Sea.
Hezbollah, too, has lost massively. Hezbollah’s agreement to the ceasefire in Lebanon is essentially admission of a tactical defeat. This leaves Israel free to carry on with its genocidal campaign in Gaza and the West Bank unhindered.
For the Palestinians, there is no prospect in sight for any relief from their terrible suffering. That is the situation now. But Israel and its backers need to remember that as long as Israeli domination of the Middle East persists, resistance will continue in one form or the other.
As long as Israel has not changed (or been forced to change) course, Israel remains a major source of tension and instability in the Middle East. The change of rule in Syria has provided Israel with some short-term benefits but these are not strategic gains. Israel may come to profoundly understand the meaning of the phrase “better the devil you know than the one you don’t”. Israel’s heavy bombardments of Syrian military sites and her incursion into the ceasefire buffer zone in the Golan Heights reveal Israel’s attitude to Syria’s new rulers.
Russia has lost heavily in Syria. Russia’s air base and its naval base there are very important to her but most important is the loss of Russian prestige and influence, not only in the Middle East but across the world.
The main winner of this change seems to be Turkey. Not only do they have designs on the Kurdish area in the north; there is suspicion that Turkey may try to turn Syria into a new version of an Ottoman satrapy. This could be bad news for Syria and the Middle East.
Israel’s brutal treatment of the Palestinians and total disregard for international law has left an impact on the Arab street that cannot be quantified. Its worth noting that this subjective issue may have a pronounced effect on developments.
The imminent return of Donald Trump to the US presidency does not bode well. The growing clash between the main powers on the global stage will affect developments in Syria and beyond.
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