- Like some sci-fi horror film depicting an extra-terrestrial invasion of Earth, humanity is being attacked by something almost completely unknown, killing thousands across the world every day. We take comfort in knowing that, sooner or later, we will develop effective treatments, a vaccine, and thus find ways to live with it in our midst, as we do influenza and measles. But these remain mere hopes, with tangible solutions yet to appear on the horizon.
In the meantime, we already know that ‘normal’ will never be the same again. COVID-19 is forcing a global paradigm shift, arguably unprecedented in world history. All our fundamental assumptions about health, culture, economics, politics and international relations have been thrown into chaos by this previously unknown virus.
The closest precedent probably is the plague during the Middle Ages, famously brought to life in Giovanni Boccaccio’s The Decameron, completed in 1353. Unlike the plague, though, C-19 affects the entire world, not just a continent or two, all more or less simultaneously. Moreover, news of the virus’ spread and the upheaval it is causing is intensified as it spreads globally and nearly instantaneously. There is no hiding either from the virus or its profound effects on life as we know it, no matter who we are or where and how we live.
While it is far too early to predict what new paradigms will emerge, a number of profound consequences are emerging which must inform our preparations for what follows in C-19’s wake
1- Never has the fundamental interdependence of all humanity been more starkly clear.
Last year, the mounting horrors of climate change -- uncontrollable bush fires, swarms of voracious locusts and devastating floods -- began to seriously challenge isolationist and nationalist narratives. But if those challenges were wake up alarms, too many continued to hit the snooze button. COVID-19 is nature’s bucket of ice water thrown over us all, forcing the world to recognise our irredeemably globalised world as one vast interconnected society. No matter how we identify ourselves and each other, everyone faces the onslaught of this virus and the life-changing socio-economic and political shocks that inevitably will follow.
2 - The effects of this pandemic on the developing world are likely to explode into an international crisis qualitatively more deadly than anything we've yet seen. Even in relatively good times, many countries have weak economies and almost no medical or economic safety net for their people. As death, destitution and desperation surge, how will a semblance of social order be maintained, and by whom? Huge flows of refugees will be triggered by the health crisis and ensuing economic & social collapse. Pressures on land borders and sea crossings will rise exponentially.
The initial reaction in many countries has been to shut the gates and build ever more secure fences as nationalist feelings surge. But the virus has no respect for border fences and passports, much less other irrelevant distinctions. Any one of us can pass on this deadly virus to dozens of others, even when we’ve no knowledge of each other’s existence or the danger we pose to them, simply by coughing. In this respect, the weakest and most impoverished amongst us are as powerful as the wealthiest and most autocratic.
How long will it take for us to recognise that no country or elite can seal itself off from the C-19 scourge and its consequences? The richest and safest countries MUST, in their own interests, do everything possible to help the most deprived and vulnerable fight and control this virus.
3 - The enormous benefits of socialism are breaking through public consciousness. Never have the deadly consequences of capitalism’s insistence upon profit, rather than social need, has been so starkly exposed. Suddenly even extreme free-marketeers like Boris Johnson find themselves ordering key service industries such as health and transport, together with private companies that serve them, to work in the public interest. Rigid austerity has been spectacularly reversed, with wealthy countries funding up to 80% of salaries or providing a guaranteed minimum income.
But there is no guarantee this trend will continue. At the first opportunity, there’ll be enormous pressure to remove controls over business, reverse any ‘temporary’ nationalisations, and attempt a return to ‘business as usual’. We must seize this opportunity to develop strong, practical grassroots solidarity networks now which can be transformed into a massive social movement in the months ahead. Demands to fully re-nationalise and fully fund the NHS must be at the forefront of a renewed, irrepressible movement.
4 - As huge religious gatherings become lethal vectors of C-19, religious dogmas have come under huge strain. Everywhere from India and Iran to Saudi Arabia, South Korea and the US, the “miraculous power” of religious shrines and rituals are being blatantly exposed as superstition and mortally dangerous lies. What will this mean for their power?
5 - The exposure of America’s gross incompetence in this crisis is rapidly accelerating China’s rise to global dominance. Long before C-19, it was clear that Chinese economic & political power will eventually overtake that of the US. No one, though, could predict how long this process would take. Following WW2, the US achieved hegemony through its immense technological and wealth advantages. In the 70 years that followed, America’s ability to impose decisive solutions to crises as they arose frequently left them in an even stronger position of dominance.
But C-19 has exposed the catastrophic collapse in the competence of America’s leadership while China offers practical solutions to dramatically cutting the virus’ impact. The political and social implications of China’s solutions, and the ruptures an accelerated shift in global domination will bring, need sober analysis and response.
6 - The severity and precise manifestation of the impending global economic meltdown cannot yet be foreseen. (In the UK, C-19 is set to multiply exponentially the huge economic disruption expected from BREXIT.) Much depends upon how long it takes to find and make widely available both effective treatment and a vaccine. Whereas the global tipping point for climate change is measured in degrees centigrade, the tipping point for C-19’s economic, social and political consequences will be measured in weeks and months. How long can lockdown and economic paralysis continue before triggering an uncontrollable breakdown in social and international order?
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