Raisi’s Cabinet: Cabinet of the Regime’s Failure!

Analytical Statement of the Political-Executive Board of the Left Party of Iran (People's Fadaian)

Raisi’s Cabinet: Cabinet of the Regime’s Failure!

Internal and external hurdles and environmental challenges of the Islamic Republic

The formation of a "uniform" cabinet was a continuation of the mandated election held for the presidency of Raisi. Those who put Raisi to the presidency position also formed one of the weakest and most incompetent governments on the scale of even the Islamic Republic itself. So much so that either because of its similarities to the Ahmadinejad's cabinet or because of the presence of a considerable number of members of his cabinet, some considered this cabinet to be Ahmadinejad's third government. The difference is that Ahmadinejad assumed presidency at a time when the situation in the country was in no way comparable to today. The economic crisis had not yet become a devastating super crisis and destructive sanctions against our country had not been imposed. On the contrary, with rising oil prices, huge revenues were available, and hundreds of billions of dollars were available for extravagances, pork barrels, thefts, and embezzlements. Now, however, the country is in economic crisis and a complete political blockade, the treasury of the country is empty. In terms of foreign and regional relations, the Islamic Republic is isolated and is in one of its most tough times. The Raisi’s cabinet, like his presidency that emerged from cesarean section by the Guardian Council, has been set up by “guardianship (Velayat)” System led by Khamenei

Now that the Raisi’s cabinet, as the Supreme Leader’s beloved "Islamic government" is to take the "second step of the revolution" in establishing the "Islamic System", implement the "Islamic Society" plan proposed by Ali Khamenei and pave the way for "Islamic civilization", in the first step, faces several major challenges: the economic crisis, the crippling US sanctions and the stalemate in the JCPOA negotiations, the Corona crisis and the resulting death toll, the environmental crisis and the water crisis across the country, the incompetency crisis of the whole system and the crisis of legitimacy and the weakening of the social base of the regime and the confrontation with the demands movement and popular uprisings that have always surprised the regime.

1. Economic Super Crisis

The most important predicament for our country today is the economic super crisis. The economic situation is so dire that economists find it exceedingly difficult to return to economic growth, even if sanctions are lifted. The country's economy has shrunk too much in recent years and has shrunk by 17 percent in the last three years. For three years in a row, the country's economic growth was negative. The country's gross domestic product (GDP) has fallen to $200 billion. Prior to the US sanctions, Iran's GDP was $430 billion. During this period, due to rising exchange rates, the intensification of sanctions, destructive economic policies and corruption, the country's GDP has decreased and Iran's distance from its regional rivals, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, has increased to $400-500 billion.

In such a situation, those who have been appointed to lead the country's economy are among the most incompetent ministers. The first vice president, Mohammad Mokhber, a key figure in Khamenei’s circle, has the record of leading the financial empire of "Executive Headquarters of Imam's Directive (Setad) " and other foundations and cartels that feed from the pockets of the people and do not give books to anyone and have the lion share in the control of the country's economic resources and are the source of corruption in the country. One of Mohammad Mokhber's masterpieces is leading the drug and health mafia under the name of "Barakat", which played a key role in preventing the entry of foreign vaccines behind the scenes. He also received a large budget for the production of the vaccine, which was not less than the cost of purchasing the vaccine.

The cabinet, which came to power under the slogan of fighting corruption, is headed by one of the most corrupt figures in the first place. The economic team under Mohammad Mokhber is no different from him. Minister of Economy Seyed Ehsan Khandouzi, like many members of the "uniform" cabinet, lacks any experience in the field of economic management. Of course, the list of the "resistance economy" generals in the "uniform" cabinet is long. Mohsen Rezaei has also taken his share from the government-makers behind the scenes and has been appointed vice president for economic affairs and is also the Secretary of the Supreme Economic Coordination Council of the three branches of government and the Secretary of the Government's Economic Staff. In addition, Farhad Rahbar, the chief economic adviser during the election, has been appointed chief economic assistant. Rather than planning to solve people's problems, these arrangements are merely the distribution of posts and positions among those who will be subordinated to others in all matters, including in the field of economics, rather than managing part of the country's devastated economy.

2. Foreign Policy at the Disposal of Military Leverage!

With the appointment of Hossein Amir-Abdollahian to the Foreign Ministry, in fact, diplomacy has been officially entrusted to the "military leverage." When the negotiations over JCPOA ended, Amir Abdullahian was fired from the post of Deputy Foreign Minister in 2016 due to his position. At that time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) media referred to him as the Arab-African Deputy Foreign Minister, calling him "the number one supporter of the Axis of Resistance." The number one "resistance" man now sits at the helm of the foreign affairs and holds the helm of regime diplomacy.

Of course, "military leverage" has a prominent presence in the Raisi’s cabinet. Eight current and former commanders of the Revolutionary Guards are members of this cabinet: Ahmad Vahidi (former commander of the Quds Force), Rostam Ghasemi (former commander of the Khatam al-Anbia construction camp), Hossein Amir Abdullahian, Mohammad Ali Zolfigol, Ismail Khatib, Mohammad Reza Gharayi Ashtiani, Bahram Einollahi, and Ezatollah Zarghami. Massoud Mirkazemi, who has been introduced as the head of the country's Plan and Budget Organization (PBO), is another former military man. It is not in vain that the Air Force commander of the Revolutionary Guards has announced the Raisi’s cabinet as "the first Islamic government."

Amir Abdullahian wrote in his first Instagram post after his appointment to the Foreign Ministry: "... with an operational plan, balanced, active, dynamic and intelligent foreign relations, based on mutual respect, prioritizing relations with neighbors and Asia, development of balanced relations with all parts of the world and the strengthening of the position of economic diplomacy and international trade will be pursued." On Twitter he added: "Asia is the number one priority" to all these. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's written message and his praise of Amir Abdullahian were significant in this regard, given Zarif’s reference to Russia's role in "military leverage." Lavrov's words were clear and transparent: "I know you are in favor of further multidimensional cooperation between Russia and Iran. During your presence, both as Deputy Foreign Minister and as special assistant to the speaker of the parliament and Director General of International Affairs of the parliament, you provided all kinds of assistance in this regard." What is certain is that the policy of distance from the West will continue and a minimal relationship will be established with Western countries in order to lift and resolve sanctions. The recent agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi is a reflection of this orientation. But turning to the east will have a major weight in the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic. The 25-year agreement with China and the issue of membership in “the Shanghai Cooperation Organization” will be pursued more seriously. The resounding echo of the "resistance economy" in the Raisi’s cabinet does not mean a return to a closed, self-sufficient, and non-negotiable economy. The "look to the east" has a high capacity to include the "resistance economy" in itself.

The fate of JCPOA and the negotiations on it are not yet clear. The current US policy of negotiating has drastically reduced the initial optimism after Biden's victory and has more or less returned to the pre-Biden mood. Although the United States, along with Europe wants the Islamic Republic to return to the negotiating table, it does not have high hopes for a serious agreement with the new government of the Islamic Republic. On the other hand, the government of the Islamic Republic, under the pretext of transitioning from the Rouhani government to the new government, seems to be delaying the negotiations, seeking to buy time to achieve the desired results in this period of purgatory.

3. Corona and the Daily Slaughter of People

The outbreak of Corona in the country in its dimensions has become another national catastrophe. Today, our country is in a worse situation than any other country. It is natural that at the beginning of the Corona outbreak, all countries were in a similar situation. But with the development of different vaccines, vaccination was a crucial step in combating and controlling Covid-19. There are now many countries that have been able to minimize the incidence and mortality of Covid-19 through extensive vaccination. But what has happened in our country is like a tragedy in every way. On the one hand, Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, has officially banned the import of vaccines from the United States and Britain during a speech in front of the cameras. On the other hand, the promises of domestic production at exorbitant costs have not been desirable for the people and the country.

At the farewell ceremony, Raisi’s Minister of Health, who was himself one of the opponents of the import of the vaccine, praised the former Minister of Health who is one of the main perpetrators of the current situation and one of the perpetrators of the massacre of the people in the outbreak of Corona and called him "the living martyr" and "the shining diamond". He praised an incompetent minister accused of negligence and inefficiency in the issue of vaccination and management of the Corona crisis, and accomplice of Ali Khamenei in killing people due to Covid-19. Defending the previous incompetent minister is a mirror in which the face of the future health minister can be seen.

Now, under pressure from the people and the protests, Khamenei has quietly reversed his decision, and the import of the vaccine from outside has been permitted.

4- Destruction of the Environment

One of the great problems of our country is the destruction of the environment, either due to the destructive policies of the regime or due to climate change and the resulting warming. Unmindful of the climate change, the regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran has also exacerbated the country's environmental crisis by continuing to build dams, divert rivers, continue its destructive policy of energy production and overuse of the country's water resources. Recent protests over water scarcity in Khuzestan, the drying up of the Zayandeh River (Zayandeh Rood), protest of farmers in this province and many other places against water shortages, evacuation of villages, drying of lakes, including the drying up of most of Lake Urmia and turning the surrounding area into a large salt marsh in one of the greenest areas of Iran; all are signs of major climate change in the country that requires urgent action and long-term planning to reduce its effects. So far, not only no action has been taken, but only imaginary plans such as fertilizing the clouds, or transferring Caspian water to the desert, etc. have been pictured. At the same time, they continue to build dams on the country's rivers, divert their sources, and waste ground resources, regardless of the threats they pose to the environment and the people of this country.

Environmental activists have been detained, tortured, and imprisoned under various pretexts. Protests against drought and water scarcity are suppressed. Experts' suggestions and opinions about the use of the country's natural resources, changes in current procedures and attention to the needs of sustainable development in this field are not taken into account. The perpetrators of environmental degradation do not face any obstacles. No one has the power to challenge the military and security apparatus that runs an important part of the country's economy and the lucrative water mafia, of which the Gotvand Dam and the salt-water lake behind it, which could turn all the lands beneath the dam into saltmarsh, is an example of its catastrophic activities.

Due to the significant role and high influence of the commanders of the Revolutionary Guards and the "Khatam al-Anbia Construction Camp", which is the main actor of dam construction and the leader of the water mafia in Iran, Raisi’s cabinet cannot have a plan to change policy. On the contrary, it is the cabinet of continuation of previous destructive approaches and policies. This time, Rostam Ghasemi, in the guise of the Ministry of Roads and Construction, will provide the construction projects of the roads and buildings of the country to the "Khatam Al-Anbia Camp" and its affiliates.

5- Inefficiency of the Ruling System

For Ali Khamenei, a uniformed cabinet meant an end to duality and reaching unity. This issue was also mentioned after the election of Ahmadinejad and in explaining why he supported Ahmadinejad. One of the "gifts" of this unity is in fact the entrustment of affairs to the hidden government. Even among critics of the regime, there are those who expect the cabinet to be effective alongside the "leadership." Both this expectation and Ali Khamenei's desire to form an "efficient" government is a dream that will not be interpreted.

The inefficiency of governments is rooted in the structure of the system based on the Velayat-e Faqih (guardianship of the Islamic jurist), discrimination and corruption of the Islamic Republic. Distinguishing between Muslims and non-Muslims, Shiites and Sunnis, insiders and outsiders, men and women, giving priority to one over humiliating and erasing the rights of the other, leaving the country's resources to a small part of the people and depriving another part of their basic rights are the elements that corrupt any system from within and make it incapable and inefficient in the face of the problems of the country and the people. It is not in vain that, except its system of repression and looting which has tied its destiny to the existence of this system, none of its institutions has the necessary efficiency, and the crisis of inefficiency has overshadowed all the pillars of the country.

6- Crisis of Legitimacy

In the continuation of the uprisings of January 2017 and November 2019, the boycott of the 11th parliamentary elections and the 13th presidential elections was an expression of the resistance of the majority of the Iranian people against the regime and a sign of the delegitimization of the Islamic Republic. It is true that free elections have no place in the political structure of the Islamic Republic, but in the last two elections, the Iranian people have shown how far they have distanced themselves from the regime and its flawed elections. Given the experience of a quarter of a century, a large part of the population had long since given up on the possibility of influencing regime-controlled elections. Popular uprisings, repeated calls for Khamenei to resign, and resounding protests against Khamenei and calling him the dictator, have shown the general direction of the protests in recent years. The presence of this spirit in the recent election led to the success of the boycott of the regime's mandated election and showed that today the social base of the Islamic Republic has been weakened more than ever.

The appointment of Ahmad Vahidi to the Interior Ministry is an expression of the future policy of Khamenei's favorite cabinet towards the protesters in the streets and preparing to suppress more people, even the critics inside the system, and show them an iron fist. The last two elections of the Islamic Republic, both the parliamentary and the presidential elections, were important turning points within the regime itself. The presidency has been imposed not only on the people who oppose the Islamic Republic and want to change it, but also on the forces within the system. The Raisi’s cabinet also lacks legitimacy for most of the forces within the system, including a large part of the right-wing conservative and its defenders. The formation of this cabinet has intensified the crisis of legitimacy of the Islamic Republic.

7. Cabinet of Failure

The induction of the Raisi’s cabinet headed by one of the main executors and decision-makers of the massacre of thousands of political prisoners in 1988, who has been part of the criminal judiciary system that has issued death sentences for the past forty-three years, is an insult to the rueful people of our country and a criminal act in itself. At the same time, the Raisi’s cabinet, with all the expenses incurred by Khamenei and his entourage, is a complete reflection of the frustration of the entire regime and, above all, of Khamenei's own failure. This cabinet, like its architect, Ali Khamenei, believes that the country can be run with frothy slogans. The repetition of words such as "jihadi", "decisive" or "revolutionary" to mobilize the weakened base of the regime, in the public mind is reminiscent of the slogans of the early dark years of the Islamic Republic and relive the suffering that Iranian society has suffered over the past 43 years. An era that began with systematic discrimination in all areas, from gender to ideology and religion, from insiders and outsiders to national and ethnic and still continues.

Khamenei's main goals were to form a uniform cabinet, to make the system more efficient, to resolve the underlying problems, including unhindered regulation of relations with the outside world, to resolve sanctions, to prepare for social upheaval, and to stage a succession by taking over the executive branch after legislative branch was taken over by his trustees. This goal has now been met, but the head of the cabinet will not be competent enough to fulfill Khamenei's aspirations, nor will he have any plans to get out of the current crisis.

The path taken by the regime of the Islamic Republic under the leadership of Ali Khamenei with the appointment of Raisi as the president is a step towards further destruction of the country. The Raisi’s cabinet is the continuation of the destructive policies of the regime in a situation where the gap between the society and the regime has reached its peak and a large part of the people is looking for fundamental changes to surmount the Islamic Republic. The Raisi’s cabinet may be the preferred cabinet of Khamenei and his allies in preparing for the second step and consolidating the future of the system by combining it according to his wishes, but it will lead the country to more and deeper crises.

Political-Executive Board of the Left Party of Iran (People’s Fadaian)

September 26, 2021