It is more than a year since full scale war broke out in Gaza. In this time, more than 43,000 Gazans have been killed, with the toll rising relentlessly with every day that passes. The war has severely damaged Israel’s international standing and is damaging US international interests even more, but there is no end in sight.
A realistic solution to the problem must satisfy two opposing sets of interests and goals. This can only occur when one of the major factors of the war changes. As long as the antagonists insist and persist, this war will drag on.
Many observers point to the personal interests of Netanyahu in this conflict; Netanyahu is simply using the complex opportunities at his disposal.
Since the Israeli air raid on Iran on 25/10/2024 both sides seem to have pulled back from crossing each other’s red lines. As long as the Gaza war continues, this ‘controlled’ tit for tat will keep the Middle East on edge. Netanyahu’s claim regarding changing the Middle East map seems to be rhetorical for now. For the time being, the two antagonists carry on in their low level war. The Islamic Republic will not give up her allies in the Middle East. At the same time, Israel will not give up her goal of dominating the entire region.
The war in Gaza could change the posturing of these two antagonists and the equation between them, but that is yet to be seen. The total lack of a blueprint for the ‘day after’ has so far prevented any resolution of this conflict.
No matter which formula finally is adopted, the governing force will have to tackle the cost of rebuilding Gaza. Israel has destroyed Gaza and billions of dollars are needed for just the initial outlay. Who will pay the bill? Israel will almost certainly not contribute. The Arab governments have their own criteria, which is almost certainly rejected by Israel.
The key question is who will maintain order in Gaza once the war is concluded. There appear to be four options:
Option One - A long-term occupation of Gaza by Israel. Over time, Israel is likely to annex this territory and gradually settle the area with Zionists. This option sits well with the Israeli right.
As long as a practical and applicable alternative is not found, this appears to be the default option. But the international ramifications of this are huge for both Israel and her US patron. Of course, America’s international rivals would not mind if the US falls into this trap. A huge amount of US resources will have to continue being diverted to the Middle East while the rivals concentrate on other issues.
Option Two - The Gaza strip is handed over to the Palestinian Authority (PA) to govern. This option is at best a version of Option One. Given the corruption of the PA and its general unpopularity among the Palestinians, it is hard to see the present PA leadership accepting such a responsibility, let alone succeeding in it. This option also is not popular among neighbouring Arab countries. In short, it can lead only to another set of tensions and future wars.
Option Three – Complete Israeli withdrawal from the strip. This is Hamas’ key demand. Israel sees this as demanding Israeli capitulation to Hamas – utterly unacceptable.
Option Four - Responsibility for law and order in the strip is handed over to the UN and Western forces. This is likely to be seen as another occupation of Arab land by non-Arabs. To counter this, the powers that be will have to get some Arab forces (Egypt, Jordan or UAE) involved. However, these Arab countries have their own sets of conditions. These boil down to a concrete plan for an independent Palestinian state, with no ‘ifs or buts’, within a short time frame. To date, Israel’s rejection of this option has made it a non-starter.
Thus, no solution appears to be on the horizon, and the atrocities and genocide in the Midde East will continue.
Add new comment