Donald Trump’s second term as US president will start on 20th January 2025. The most predictable aspect of this term is its unpredictability. His unorthodox approach to politics has generated a wave of anxieties throughout the world, increasing international instability, leading to possible chaos.
Below are some of the big questions the world faces.
Democracy – Trump has won the majority in both houses of the US Congress as well as the popular vote. With his autocratic tendencies, this gives him a strong opportunity to radically alter the American political system. How far will he go? How far will his ambitions impact the rest of the world?
Mass deportation – Mr Trump has repeatedly threatened millions of undocumented migrants with mass deportation. Will he be able to make good on this threat? How will his policies affect American agriculture and other US economic sectors dependent upon cheap labour? What will become of those millions deported, and the countries in which they are dumped? How will this affect the ever-growing global tendency toward migration from the global south?
Climate change - Trump is a climate change denier and is expected to pull out of all of Biden’s commitments in this regard. Trump’s slogan ‘Drill Baby, Drill!’ proclaims his enthusiasm for unlimited use of fossil fuels. Will the increasing momentum of unprecedented natural disasters force him to change course?
World trade - Trump’s blinkered obsession to ‘Make America Great Again” (MAGA) is almost certain to wreak havoc on world trade. He has threatened to impose 65% import tariffs on China and 25% on Europe. Is the world about to plunge into prolonged trade wars?
Military protection ransom demands - He has threatened to demand billions of dollars from Europe (especially NATO countries), Saudi Arabia and even South Korea. How will this affect US world-wide alliances?
Ukraine, Russia & China - Trump boasts that he will immediately end the war in Ukraine. How is he going to accomplish this? His affinity with Putin (and autocrats in general) is well known. What new alliances does he have in mind?
Israel/Palestine and Iran - Trump has made no secret of his desire for Israel ‘to finish the job’. With respect to Iran, his declared priority is to prevent the Islamic Republic from crossing the nuclear weapon threshold, while his policy of ‘maximum pressure’ is almost certain to continue. At the same time, he is a business man keenly focused upon reducing US commitments abroad in favour of building the economy at home, and declares himself hostile to US involvement in wars abroad. How will this glaring contradiction play out? Will he start a war with Iran or give Netanyahu the go-ahead to do so?
Much of the world, not least the Middle East, is already in turmoil. How will Trump’s coming presidential term reshape the ‘world order’?
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