The American armada is now positioned in the Middle East. Aircraft carriers, bomber and fighter aircraft are prepared to wreak havoc, death and destruction on the Iranian people, possibly leading to a much larger conflagration in the Middle East at large.
Openly acknowledged talks between the US and Iran are taking place in Oman. Still, no one – not even the impetuous Donald Trump -- knows if a military attack on Iran is imminent.
Trump’s aversion to becoming enmeshed in open-ended military operations is a known secret. He likes operations such as the abduction of president Maduro in Venezuela. But Iran is not Venezuela. The Islamic Republic has repeatedly announced that, if attacked, it will respond with full force. In such a scenario the whole Middle East could go up in flames. While the Iranian people would suffer the most, a long period of disastrous war could engulf the entire region. Is such a scenario possible without American forces’ deep and long-term involvement? Does this prospect suit Mr Trump?
Several Midde Eastern actors -- Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Oman and Turkey --oppose this scenario which would seriously disturb their ambitions for progress. Israel, on the other hand, has most probably lobbied for a US attack on Iran.
On the other side of the equation, the Islamic Republic is in its worst situation ever. The Iranian currency has collapsed as has the Iranian economy. The regime has just supressed an internal uprising by brutally butchering thousands of its demonstrating citizens.
At the same time, Iran’s regional power and influence has been severely weakened, not least by several major defeats in the Middle East arena. The Islamic Republic is severely isolated among the countries of the Western world. It does not want to engage in a war with the most powerful military in the world, though it depends upon maintaining an atmosphere of impending war for its very existence.
The US has several Conditions on Iran. They include the full secession of Uraneum enrichment, limits on Iranian ballistic missiles and Iran’s Middle East destabilisation policies. The issues relating to human rights are missing. After all, Trump is not concerned with any issue unless it serves Trump’s policies.
It seems Iran is ready to negotiate on most of these conditions but not on defence issues (ie missiles) . It seems some issues can relate to the very nature of the Islamic Republic.( For instance IR’s enmity towards Israel.) It seems the rift between Trump’s administration and the Islamic Republic is too far to be bridged by peaceful means. The IR policies need to be changed.
The IR must change direction. This is the kind of future that Iranian people hope for. But this is a task for the Iranian people solely. The forces outside Iran can help, without interfering, without violating Iran’ s sovereignty.
The US demands seem to be too high for IR to comply. There seems to be some sort of demands for a ‘regime change’ rather than a personnel change.
The present manoeuvres by both sides indicates another possibility. Knowing a serious agreement of the WAR OR PEACE
The American armada is now positioned in the Middle East. Aircraft carriers, bomber and fighter aircraft are prepared to wreak havoc, death and destruction on the Iranian people, possibly leading to a much larger conflagration in the Middle East at large.
Openly acknowledged talks between the US and Iran are taking place in Oman. Still, no one – not even the impetuous Donald Trump -- knows if a military attack on Iran is imminent
The future hangs in the balance.
Iranian people need, desperately need, a secular and democratic government. A government that respects their desires for peace, human rights and progress.
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