The Political and Economic Situation of the Country, Intensification of General Protests and Our Policy!

July 16, 2022

The Political and Economic Situation of the Country, Intensification of General Protests and Our Policy!

 Collaborations and alliances are means to make forces more powerful in carrying out transformations that are beyond the power of this or that force alone. Therefore, these approaches will be effective when they revive hope in the country's political scene. They should take the burden off the shoulders of the people, be used to bring about changes and be able to put an end to the misery of the people under the yoke of the Islamic Republic. There are many people inside the country trying to change this regime by paying a heavy price. Undoubtedly, the role of these fighters, who include the leaders of various political, cultural and trade groups and despite the repression of the Islamic Republic, carry the banner of civil struggles, is very decisive in the future developments of the country. The opposition abroad should consider itself a part of the ongoing struggle, establish a mutual relationship with the people's movement and echo the voice of change.

The Political and Economic Situation of the Country, Intensification of General Protests and Our Policy!

The people of our country are going through tough times. The political, economic and social situation is getting worse day by day. Since taking over the presidency, the Raisi’s government has added to the multitude of problems in the country and made the impasse of the Islamic Republic more obvious. Dissatisfaction with Khamenei's performance and the incompetence of Raisi's government is increasing day by day.

Civil protests, strikes and street uprisings in various part of the country have spread so much that the regime is no longer able to "subdue" them. Arrests, tortures, medieval trials, even the killing of protesters have lost their effect. The torrent of protests and strikes has become a permanent phenomenon.

1. Deterioration of the Political Situation

Changes and transformations can be seen at the level of the society and the regime. These changes can be seen in the radicalization of slogans and the continuation of protests on the one hand and the regime's inability to silence protests and riots and the escalation of differences in the ranks of the forces within the regime on the other hand. The effect and reflection of this matter can be seen in the vibrancy among the opposition forces.

Taking the executive and legislative branches by the extremist and Khamenei-obedient forces has not brought any special efficiency to the regime. The government that was formed with the illusion of creating efficiency in the regime has acted much weaker and more corrupt than the previous governments and has become another factor to demonstrate the bankruptcy of the regime.

Maintaining the authority of the regime is still based on suppressing, imprisoning, threatening and killing dissidents in various ways. Khamenei dreams of returning to the 1980s and has recently appealed to the "God of the 1980s" to save the regime. The pressure on women has increased, once again the regime’s mobs against women have gone to the streets. Critics of the regime and its opponents, activists of civil movements, members of the trade unions of teachers and syndicalists are arrested, but none of these efforts will be a solution to save the sinking ship of the Islamic Republic. The disobedience of a group of young girls against hijab in Shiraz and women's protest against the compulsory hijab in various forms shows the fact that despite the increase in repression, a new generation has taken up the banner of more than four decades of women's struggle, including the girls of “Revolution Square.” Losing control over the situation has become the biggest nightmare of the leaders of the Islamic Republic. Therefore, the regime considers any rightful act from fighting against the mandatory hijab, asking for a wage commensurate with the level of inflation growth and asking for retirees’ pensions increase commensurate with their basic needs an action against the system and sees the footprints of the "enemy" behind these protests. The organs of the regime, from the military and security apparatus to radio and television, press and colorful media are mobilized to suppress them.

Now the regime's weapon of repression and intimidation is losing its effectiveness and the public arena and the streets are being taken over by protesters step by step. Movements of workers, women, students, journalists, writers, believers of other religions, dissidents, LGBTQ people, national and ethnic identity seekers, all have risen against discrimination and injustice and they do not think of anything else but leaving this regime behind. The current regime is considered to be the main obstacle to change in the society.

The uprisings of January 2018 and November 2019 were a turning point in the people's protest movement, which were repeated in protests, strikes and regional uprisings against shortage and lack of water. The recent attempt of the Regime’s Parliament to legitimize shooting at the people by the suppression forces and legalize it, which has been the case without a law for more than four decades, as well as the public emphasis of the representative of Supreme Leader on the training of forces in the IRGC to shoot without fear towards the people, rather than expressing the power of the regime, they are an expression of fear in its ranks. Today, the Islamic Republic is facing large groups of the society who want to get rid of it.

2. The Spread of Public Protests

Change has become the demand of large groups of society. This demand is a flood that has started and flows under the skin of the society. It is echoed in people’s protests, strikes and gatherings all over the country and shakes the pillars of the Islamic Republic.

Public protests have become more widespread. There is not a day that there is no strike or protest in the country. The main causes of these moves are generally the chaotic economic situation of the people, the unprecedented high price of basic goods, the unanswered demands of wage earners, shortage and lack of water and the desire to enjoy a decent and humane life.

The large and successive gatherings of teachers, retirees, public protests, labor strikes, etc., indicate the growing opposition and dissatisfaction against the regime and the turbulent general situation of the country. The aggravation of the economic crisis in recent years has made poverty more common and pushed more households below the poverty line. A large part of workers and other wage earners are not able to meet their daily needs with their current wages. In addition to increasing the potential for street uprisings at critical moments, this has also made standing up to urgent demands a vital matter for a substantial portion of the population.

Demand movements reflect the vital needs of a substantial portion of the people and play a key role in awakening society and struggle to change to improve social life. These demands are not only limited to the demands related to people's livelihood, but beyond livelihood, they also include the desire to form organization, to have the right to defend their rights, and to be active and involved in the environment of their lives and activities. In recent years, the nationwide gatherings of teachers and retirees have shown an admirable display of a collective self-aware movement with a firm will, and it is this will that has forced the Islamic Republic to approve some of their demands, albeit incompletely, after ten years.

The movement of teachers and retirees showed that demand movements in Iran, despite the regime's aggression and threats, can play a significant role in confronting poverty and violation of rights and forcing the regime to retreat in certain fields.

It is not possible to understand the position of these movements without understanding the close connection of the demands with the livelihood of an important portion of the society. These movements play a prominent role in changing the atmosphere of society. Paying attention to the needs of their growth and strengthening should be at the top of the practical activity of the justice-seeking and freedom-seeking forces of the left in defense of the civil struggles of the people.

3. Deterioration of the Economic Situation

The economic situation of the country is critical and dire. Neoliberalist policies under the title of resistance economy combined with widespread structural corruption in the ranks of the Islamic Republic have made people's daily lives more difficult. Economic stagnation and high inflation have spread poverty in the society and increased the dimensions of unemployment and chaos. According to published statistics, the average inflation rate for the month of June is 39.4%, but the estimates are much higher than this figure and the inflation rate reaches 50% and more. The elimination of 4,200 Toman dollar is one of the crucial factors in the upward trend of the inflation rate.

The economic growth of the last few years has been negative and as a result the country's economy has become smaller every year than the previous year. The fact is that since 2018 and after the announcement of sanctions by the Trump administration, the growth of Iran's economy has been negative and, with the sanctions being in place, this trend will continue this year. This very situation is one of the factors of stagnation and high inflation in the country.

The chronic economic crisis is the result of more than four decades of destructive and corrupt policies of the Islamic Republic and control of military institutions, foundations and cartels under the supervision of Supreme Leader over a large part of the country's economy. On the other hand, the Islamic country's insistence on non-interaction with the western world has completely severed the economic relationship with many countries of the world. This has put the pressure of this crisis on the shoulders of the people. It has narrowed the path of productive economic activity and made the country's economy more paralyzed.

Lifting of the economic sanctions could have opened a breathing space for the country's economy. But this step has not been implemented so far due to the confusing tangle of foreign policy of the Islamic Republic. There is no doubt that the problem is not the sanctions, but the policies of the Islamic Republic itself. It will not be possible to save the country's economy with continuation of the current policies and without structural changes in the current structure and policy of the country.

4- Reviving the JCPOA

It took the current government five months to return to the negotiating table to revive the JCPOA. When it returned, it tried to start the negotiations from the zero point. After that, it took months for the preliminary agreements to be made, the disputed issues to be determined and presented to the parties for decision. The obstacles to the agreement are not necessarily related to the JCPOA itself, but they are among the requests of the negotiating team of the Islamic Republic.

Of course, the clique of this government, including Khamenei himself, who is standing behind this government, were not very much in favor of the JCPOA from the very beginning. They considered the JCPOA to be a betrayal of the country, and they were among those worrywarts who saw their interests in danger in opening relations with the world. Therefore, they were in no hurry to return to the JCPOA. They, who put the brakes on the JCPOA and the continuation of the negotiation process long before Trump, were engaged in the exercise of deterring the progress of the negotiations in the first months. With the flare-up of Russia's war in Ukraine and sanctions of this country by Western countries, Russia's terms and conditions were added to the conditions of the Islamic Republic.

The last round of indirect negotiations between the representatives of the Islamic Republic and the United States in Doha, with the mediation of Europe, was practically without result.

The US government wants the negotiations on the JCPOA to come to a conclusion. But it is not willing to give in to the beyond JCPOA demands of the Islamic Republic. Russia sees its benefit in the suspension of negotiations, and China has its own considerations in continuing the current situation. The pressure that was exerted on the Islamic Republic for an agreement has practically decreased due to the war in Ukraine and the sanctions on Russian oil and gas. The effort of Europe, which needs Iranian oil, to complete the JCPOA has been unsuccessful.

5- Ukraine War and its Impacts

One of the developments that had a direct impact on the process of nuclear negotiations for our country in recent months is the war in Ukraine. The war in Ukraine and the alignments formed after this war have spread their shadow over these negotiations.

The leadership of the Islamic Republic, by repeatedly emphasizing the policy of enmity with America and Israel and staying away from the West, has always looked to the East and sought to establish a strategic relationship with Russia and China and gain their support against the United States. However, they do not have a strategic view of their relations with the Islamic Republic and act based on their national interests. The policy of looking to the East has not met the expectations of the regime to the extent that the regime was looking for. These two countries have not vetoed any of the resolutions sanctioning the Islamic Republic in the United Nations. But despite this, so far, the policy of looking to the East has been followed by the Islamic Republic and it has been emphasized as a strategy.

In a realistic view, it should be said that the war in Ukraine, considering the needs of the West to supply fossil energy sources, including oil, has also provided opportunities and chances for our country. But the Islamic Republic lost this precious opportunity and by selling Russian oil at a high discount, it lost a part of the oil sales market to Russia.

The closeness of the Islamic Republic to Russia and alignment with it has had a negative impact on the process of the negotiations for the revival of the JCPOA,

6- Developments in the Region

Developments are taking place in the region as well, which can perturb the current balance. The main direction of the recent changes is to confront the Islamic Republic and its policies in the region, which can take a military direction.

Although the negotiations with the neighbors in the Persian Gulf, such as Saudi Arabia, are still being pursued through the mediation of Iraq, these efforts are still far from a serious measure to de-escalate the relations with these countries and have not been able to turn into a process towards the restoration of relations between them. Although there are signs of agreement on a conflict such as the conflict in Yemen, the main issue of disagreement regarding the regional policies of the Islamic Republic and its military presence in regional conflicts and crises remains in place and is the main obstacle to improving relations with most countries in the region.

The expansion of relations, closeness and alignment of many Arab countries of the Persian Gulf with Israel in order to contain the Islamic Republic and oppose its nuclear project, the Ibrahim Agreement and the plan to establish Arab NATO in the region with the presence of the Americans and Israelis is one of the plans that has been proposed to confront the Islamic Republic. This plan has the support of the United States, and the United States itself has a leading role in its creation.

The presence of the Islamic Republic in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon is also challenged by the popular movements of these countries. The crisis in Lebanon has become very acute. Formation of government in this country has been facing problems for a long time now. In the recent elections, the position of the Islamic Republic has been weakened. The support of the Islamic Republic of Hezbollah and its allies in this country is a crucial factor in the escalation of the current crisis in Lebanon

In Iraq, the current government does not have a close relationship with the Islamic Republic, but the forces allied with the Islamic Republic still have a lot of power. Despite the widespread protests of the people over the past years against foreign interference in their country's internal affairs, the presence of the Islamic Republic in Iraq and its influence among the Shiite political forces and militias, including the forces forming the Hashd al-Shaabi, are high. Although these forces lost a large part of their votes in the last Iraqi elections, they still have such power that they practically block the assembly of the parliament, the election of the president and the formation of new government.

The presence of the Islamic Republic in Syria is still conspicuous and costly. The Arab countries are trying to restore and expand their relations with Syria and return this country to the Arab League and open relations with it. This can weaken the position of the Islamic Republic in Syria.

The adventurous, tense, costly and interventionist regional and foreign policy of the Islamic Republic has so far caused severe damage to the interests of our people and country and has exposed Iran to all kinds of dangerous threats. The continuation of this policy may even embroil our country in a devastating war and fuel enmity and tension in the region. We believe that the national interest of our country is to stay away from regional conflicts and military intervention in this or that conflict and to take steps towards furthering detente and ensuring collective peace and security in the region in order to develop economic and political relations with its neighbors.

7- Opposition and Extent of its Influence

The expansion of the people's struggles and deadlock and inefficiency of the Islamic Republic in facing crises affecting the country, has forced the opposition of the Islamic Republic to give new vigor in order to respond to the needs of the transition from the Islamic Republic. Alignments are forming around various alternatives. However, the opposition forces have not yet been able to fill the vacuum of a democratic alternative against the Islamic Republic. Consistency and alignment within the ranks of the opposition inside and outside the country against the regime is still not desirable and their influence in the country's political sphere is limited.

In order to get out of the current situation, of course, efforts should be made to create effective voices in the opposition and among its different factions and create a general understanding among the forces to set a transition road map from the current situation.

The effort of our party along with other forces to expand cooperation among the republican, leftist and justice-seeker forces is a step in this direction. Our party emphasizes cooperation and synchronization between secular republican and democratic organizations and believes that in order to effectively participate in the country's political sphere, it is necessary for the secular republicans and democrats of Iran to enter the process of wider cooperation between themselves and create an extensive coalition of parties and political activists. We consider the cooperation of six republican parties and organizations in this direction, and we are trying to reach a coalition.

However, the transition from the Islamic Republic requires wider partnerships and synchronicities. Therefore, while adhering to the republican platform as well as the leftist identity, through dialogue with political forces that are critical and opposed to the Islamic Republic, we must create the ground for understanding and agreement on the principles of democracy, including pluralism, free elections, ballot box judgment and formation of the Constituent Assembly for formulating the constitution among the country's political forces and mobilized the largest force to carry out a fundamental change in the society and turn the opposition into a support force for the people's struggles and a platform to prepare for the change in the country.

As we announced in the political platform approved by our second congress, for a peaceful transition from this regime, we once again declare our readiness to talk with the political forces critical and opposed to the Islamic Republic and are against the creation of an alternative for our country by foreign governments. Collaborations and alliances are means to make forces more powerful in carrying out transformations that are beyond the power of this or that force alone. Therefore, these approaches will be effective when they revive hope in the country's political scene. They should take the burden off the shoulders of the people, be used to bring about changes and be able to put an end to the misery of the people under the yoke of the Islamic Republic. There are many people inside the country trying to change this regime by paying a heavy price. Undoubtedly, the role of these fighters, who include the leaders of various political, cultural and trade groups and despite the repression of the Islamic Republic, carry the banner of civil struggles, is very decisive in the future developments of the country. The opposition abroad should consider itself a part of the ongoing struggle, establish a mutual relationship with the people's movement and echo the voice of change.

Political-Executive Board of the Left Party of Iran (People’s Fadaian)

July 16, 2022